Written by the Leading Edge team – 21st February 2026
The UK cx`onstruction sector remains fragile but increasingly shows signs of stabilisation as 2026 progresses. While output remains below longer-term averages, several forward-looking indicators suggest the pace of decline has slowed, with divergence emerging across sectors.
This month’s update draws on the latest releases from the Office for National Statistics, S&P Global, Glenigan, the Construction Products Association, the Mineral Products Association, and wider economic commentary.
Official output: contraction easing but still below trend
The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) continues to show softer output across both new work and repair & maintenance, but the rate of contraction has moderated compared with the sharpest falls seen in 2024–25.
The longer-term structural data also reinforces how significant repair & maintenance has become within total output — a key theme for product manufacturers exposed to RMI rather than new build.
PMI and business sentiment: still cautious, but expectations improving
The S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI remains below the growth threshold, indicating contraction across housing and civils in particular. However, forward-looking confidence readings have improved modestly, suggesting firms expect conditions to stabilise later in 2026.
Broader business surveys from the CBI echo this tone — cautious activity levels but slightly improved expectations compared with late 2025.
Project pipeline: infrastructure comparatively resilient
Glenigan project start data continues to highlight divergence between sectors. Infrastructure and selected non-residential categories appear more resilient than private housing, which remains subdued.
Government planning data also suggests continued infrastructure momentum, even if residential approvals remain uneven.
This divergence is important for suppliers — exposure to civils, public sector and commercial refurbishment markets may prove more defensive in the near term.
Materials and aggregates: prolonged weakness but cost pressures easing
The Mineral Products Association (MPA) has warned that four years of subdued construction demand has weighed heavily on aggregates and concrete markets. Volumes remain below historic norms, raising longer-term concerns about capacity and investment.
However, materials cost inflation has eased significantly compared with peak levels, improving margin visibility for manufacturers and contractors alike.
Forecast commentary from the Construction Products Association (CPA) points to modest growth in 2026, led primarily by infrastructure and repair & maintenance, with private housing lagging.
The macro backdrop: gradual improvement expected
Wider economic conditions remain mixed. Inflation has eased and interest rate expectations are more stable than a year ago, but housing demand remains sensitive to borrowing costs.
Several forecasters suggest 2026 could mark a gradual return to growth, supported by infrastructure commitments and improving business confidence — though recovery is expected to be uneven.
Final thoughts from Leading Edge
February’s data does not yet signal a rebound — but neither does it suggest accelerating decline. The picture is one of a market adjusting to a lower base, with infrastructure comparatively stronger, housing softer, and RMI holding steadier.
For building product manufacturers and construction stakeholders, this environment reinforces the importance of:
• Segment-specific demand tracking
• Close monitoring of pipeline data
• Careful sector targeting
• Realistic volume forecasting
At Leading Edge, we help clients interpret sector data in commercial terms — identifying where demand is stabilising first and how competitive dynamics are shifting across product categories.
Contact us here for more information
Source caption
Sources: ONS; S&P Global / CIPS; CBI; Glenigan; UK Government planning statistics; Mineral Products Association (MPA); Construction Products Association (CPA)
Written by the Leading Edge team – 21st February 2026
